DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/31 06:15
Trading Dominated By Positioning Ahead of Report
Cattle had a banner day, with April and later live futures contracts pushing
easily to new contract highs. The driver was the upcoming inventory report to
be released Tuesday afternoon and the bullishness surrounding it. Hogs closed
mixed after a disappointing day. Early strength slowly eroded as traders did
not have enough continued buying support to keep prices higher.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $199.32 +$0.37*
Hogs: Steady Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $88.09 +$1.03**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
Cattle futures found strength with live contracts leading the charge. The
push was mostly due to the bullish anticipation of the upcoming Cattle
Inventory report. The average trade expectation is that the beef herd will be
down 4.2%. If so, the beef herd on Jan. 1 would be down 1.265 million head from
a year ago at 28.860 million head, which would be the lowest beef cow herd on
record. The calf crop is expected to be down 2.8% or a decrease of 1 million
head from a year ago. The expectation is for a downward revision to the 2022
calf crop. There was no interest in posting bids or offers in the cash market
Monday with feedlots hoping for higher prices due to the strength of futures.
Boxed beef showed strength Monday with choice up $0.34 and select up $0.98.
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