JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- Farmers in the Central Plains have tough decisions ahead as multiple stressors are affecting the hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop. What began as a season of optimism has turned into a season of survival as drought and wild temperature swings have hampered the crop and curtailed yield potential.

According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) weekly Crop Progress report, only 34% of all winter wheat was rated in good-to-excellent condition for the week ended April 12 -- or 13% less than the same week in 2025. However, when looking at states where HRW wheat is grown, the percentages become more disparate.

In Kansas, the nation's most prolific HRW wheat producer, the crop's condition has deteriorated precipitously this spring. In its last report, USDA estimated 32% of Kansas wheat was in good-to-excellent condition, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the crop's condition heading into winter.

"That's probably the most disappointing part about this crop right now," said Justin Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat. "We did have decent moisture and planting conditions when the crop went in the ground in October. Going into dormancy, we looked to be in pretty good shape, and things were promising even coming out of dormancy in February.

"Since then, we've gone with very little rainfall, and the growing crop has depleted the topsoil moisture," he added.

Gilpin said most rainfall events have occurred roughly from the Interstate 35 corridor and to the east. In areas west of Salina and heading toward Hays, measurable rainfall hasn't fallen since November, he noted.

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick described the rainfall differences from east to west across Kansas as "pretty wild."

"Eastern areas of the state have been involved in a very active weather pattern for much of the past six weeks," he said. "There is almost no drought there, and soil moisture seems to be in a pretty good spot overall.

"It has been very dry in the west, though, and outside of a couple of measly showers across the northwest and a couple of streaks of thunderstorms in the far southwest, there has been very little precipitation there for months," he continued. "The drought category (D1-D2) doesn't really depict how bad it is for agriculture out there right now. High temperatures and strong winds in late winter and early spring have sapped soil moisture."

Gilpin said his organization's board members who farm in western parts of the state report topsoil moisture is depleted and the crop is reaching down to the subsoil to hang on, but that window is closing.

"We're hearing reports of wheat fields looking blue," Gilpin said, a telltale sign of a drought-stressed crop. "And in southwest Kansas, some farmers are already talking to insurance adjusters about potential abandonment. It's not going to be to the same extent as back in 2023 (when nearly 30% of acres were abandoned), but we're looking at production to be down probably about 15% compared to last year, and we're seeing similar challenges across the Southern Plains."

Conditions in other states where HRW wheat is primarily grown are as dire or worse than Kansas. In its report released this week, USDA rated 54% of the Texas crop, 48% of the Oklahoma crop, 47% of the Nebraska crop and 44% of the Colorado crop to be in very-poor to poor condition, respectively.

Gilpin added the warm winter and early spring temperatures combined with the drought conditions is causing the crop to mature rapidly, especially in southern Kansas where some wheat is running two weeks ahead of schedule or more.

"So, we could be looking at a pretty early wheat harvest this year," he said. "One of our board members who farms just west of Wichita mentioned that he may be cutting wheat on May 22 this year. Usually, we target June 12 as the kickoff for Kansas wheat harvest, but we've got a crop that's getting stressed with drought and the temperature swings."

Baranick said while the forecast isn't great, it's not entirely terrible, either. Frosts and freezes are a possibility in the Plains this weekend as a strong cold front begins moving southeast through the middle of the country, but not a lot of wheat should be vulnerable, he said.

"Next week, a slow-moving system is forecast to move through the country. Models are mixed on the coverage and amounts, but this is the type of setup that favors getting widespread precipitation across the southwestern Plains," Baranick said. "Additional systems like it are currently being forecast again for late April into early May, and the DTN forecast is calling for above-normal precipitation in that region through at least the first half of May.

"The details are more important than the outlook, and just because a wetter pattern is favored doesn't mean it can turn the crop around," he added. "But there is some optimism in the long-range forecast to at least stop the decline in conditions."

Gilpin said some type of rain event that could flip the switch on deteriorating conditions would be especially helpful for Kansas farmers who are reaching a crossroads on important decisions regarding fertility and pest and disease management. Reports of brown wheat mite activity have been widespread -- particularly in western Kansas but extending as far east as Salina -- and might warrant a pesticide application. In regions that have received rainfall, rust diseases could develop with warmer temperatures and necessitate a fungicide application.

"There's anxiety out there among farmers, for sure," he said. "At this point, should a farmer spend more for additional high-priced inputs? Do you make a spring nitrogen application on a crop that hasn't had any rain on it, and it's not forecasted to either? Those are the decisions that are going on right now."

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

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