CONAB, Brazil's National Supply Company, released a crop report on Feb. 12 that highlighted the planting progress of Brazil's safrinha corn, which is their larger second crop. Most notably, the safrinha planting for early February is around 2.8% ahead of last year. Through the rest of February, there are mixed signals for precipitation across Brazil that could affect planting and whether the safrinha corn crop can get off to a good start before wet season showers dissipate closer to March and April.

While planting progress is slightly ahead of last year, CONAB report also mentioned that 45.8% of the planted safrinha corn crop has emerged; 54.2% of it is in the vegetative stage. During the upcoming weekend, rain showers are forecast to decrease in coverage across central Brazil after being more widespread over the last week. Through at least the first half of next week, showers may continue to be lighter and isolated, allowing farmers to get back out in the fields and continue to wrap up soybean harvest and plant safrinha corn.

Later next week, a pattern change will take place across Brazil. A front from southern Brazil will swing north into central areas next Wednesday and lead to widespread, scattered rain showers. From next Wednesday through Sunday, DTN is favoring precipitation to be up to 10 millimeters (mm) above average across Mato Grosso, Goias, and Mato Grosso Do Sul. Approximately 30-60 mm (1.2-2.4 inches) of rain is forecast.

During the last week of February, precipitation throughout central Brazil may remain above average while conditions dry out across southern Brazil. An area of high pressure could develop off the southeast coast of South America and lead to drier conditions across southern areas. This will force most of the moisture to stay confined to the north, in central Brazil. Rainfall totals during the last week of February could average closer to 50-75 mm (2-3 inches) throughout Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso Do Sul.

While the increasing showers late next week into the end of the month are favorable for building soil moisture, it will likely lead to some planting setbacks. January proved to be a drier-than-average month for many of the crop areas of Brazil. Significant portions of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso Do Sul saw precipitation deficits exceed 75 mm (3 inches) for the entire month of January. As farmers started harvesting soybeans and planting safrinha corn, the early planted corn went into dry soil.

The opposite could be true for the second half of February as heavier rain showers delay corn planting. By Feb. 21, around 55% of the safrinha corn crop is typically planted and by March 7, it increases to 85%. Planting progress often accelerates quickly from the end of February into early March, but farmers will have to dodge showers if they want to keep up with last year's planting progress. Additionally, if the safrinha corn crop gets planted too late, the end of the wet season could end up negatively impacting the crop as frequent showers start to dissipate and drier conditions return.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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