Given how significant corn imports are to the Western Canadian feed grain markets and how vastly different the situation is from four short years ago, I wanted to provide an update and a brief outlook.

The good news is the larger-than-expected barley crop in Western Canada (and an improved corn harvest in Manitoba) has reduced the need for corn imports, into the West at least. The bad news for Eastern Canada is that competition for exportable supplies of U.S. corn has never been greater, should additional imports be needed to offset their drought-reduced corn crop.

In Thursday's U.S. weekly export sales report (for the week ending Nov. 13 as USDA tries to get caught up from the government shutdown), another stellar total was reported for corn export sales. That takes total corn export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to a record 40.72 million metric tons (mmt) or 1.603 billion bushels (bb) -- or half of the expected annual total in the first 10 weeks of the marketing year. That is 30% ahead of last year's pace, while USDA currently expects an annual increase of 12%. And more impressively, it is now 15.5% ahead of the previous record set in 2021-22 during China's corn purchase push to satisfy the Phase One trade agreement during President Trump's first term.

It's worth noting that the USDA surprised the trade with Tuesday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) update including a 125 million bushel (mb) increase in its corn export estimate for 2025-26, taking the annual total up to a significant new record level of 3.20 bb. That cut ending stocks by the same amount when the average pre-report estimate was looking for a 12 mb increase in ending stocks.

And that has been accomplished with zero corn export sales to China. But that may change soon, only adding to the competition Canada faces if it wants or needs to increase corn imports from the U.S. A very wet harvest period in China's main corn-producing areas resulted in quality issues with mold a major concern. That resulted in an 11.3% increase in China's corn price from the October low to a Dec. 5 reaction high. Prices did pull back early this week in a healthy bull market correction, but there is no sign that market concerns are alleviated yet. The next questions to ask should China decide to increase corn imports is from where and when? Time will tell, but it should be on everyone's radar. And it will impact global trade patterns regardless of the ultimate source.

Looking back at the Canadian situation, on Tuesday, USDA pegged Canadian corn imports for 2025-26 at 2 mmt (as seen in the accompanying chart -- in green), up from the previous year's limited imports, but well below recent highs. In its November update, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) had cut its corn import estimate to 1.9 mmt from 2.1 mmt previously. To offset that, they cut Feed, Waste and Dockage (FWD) by a matching 200,000 mt. They did not increase any of the FWD totals for other feed grains to offset it at the time.

Since then, Statistics Canada released its final production estimates with a surprising increase in barley production, partially offset by a surprising decrease in the national corn production total.

As mentioned in last week's blog, barley production came out much higher than expected (and last year), thanks to a 25.6% boost in the average yield, more than offsetting a 4.9% decline in harvested area. At 9.725 mmt, it came out well above not only the September Statistics Canada estimate of 8.23 mmt, but also the average pre-report estimate of 8.9 mmt. Even though it was well over last year's production of 8.144 mmt, it was nowhere near a record and only marginally over the 25-year average of 9.427 mmt. That said, the extra production will certainly be welcome by feed users, considering the exceptional barley export pace to date and the smaller national corn crop.

For corn, national production came in lighter than both 2024 and the previous estimate, despite strong results in Manitoba. Manitoba produced 2.2 mmt compared to 1.767 mmt last year, thanks to an increase in both yield and area. On a national scale, the drought in Eastern Canada more than offset that, with total national production falling to 14.867 mmt from Statistics Canada's September estimate of 15.500 mmt and last year's 15.345 mmt. The higher production in Manitoba will help offset the limited corn imports for the year, with available supplies favoring Eastern destinations.

We will be watching to see what AAFC does with all the changes in its next update, due out Dec. 17, so stay tuned.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.