Weather conditions in the U.S. Plains during the past winter and early spring merit some more attention before the 2026 growing season fully sets in. A review of the conditions for the four-month period that covers December of 2025 and January-February-March of 2026 finds in Nebraska warmth and dryness produced a set of conditions that has no comparison in the state's weather record-keeping stretching back to 1895 -- a period of 131 years.

Data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) show the average temperature in Nebraska for this four-month period was 36.6 degrees Fahrenheit. That is the warmest in the 131-year array of the state's weather data and was an astounding 8.9 degrees F above the 20th Century average. In contrast, statewide precipitation at just 1.05 inches for the entire four-month period was the driest on record and 1.99 inches below the 20th Century average. On a point graphic depicting the intersection of temperature and precipitation during the years of recordkeeping in Nebraska (see far left upper corner of accompanying graphic), December 2025-March 2026 stands far away from all other years with this warm and dry combination.

Nebraska, of course, is not the only state with this notable onset of warmth and dryness. But the impact of this out-of-bound warmth and dryness is extensive. The expansion of drought illustrates the impact of these conditions. The U.S. Drought Monitor now places almost 44% of the state in "extreme drought." Back on Jan. 1, none of the state had such a drought designation.

The Nebraska record warmth and dryness from last December through March of this year also points to the influence of long-term sustained warming in the Earth's atmosphere. Statistical probability analysis by Colorado State University climatologist Becky Bolinger of this four-month period shows a dramatic shrinking of odds against the onset of this level of warmth and dryness. University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension climatologist Eric Hunt said those odds have increasingly favored very strong warm and dry conditions over the past 40-plus years. "There is roughly a 1 in 450 chance of that occurring in the modern era and would have been a 1 in 5,200 chance prior to the 1980's," Hunt said in an email. "In other words, there is less than a 1 in 5,000 chance we would have had a December-March this dry and warm in Nebraska without our current warming."

And there is more dryness ahead. Drought is projected to either develop or continue from the Central and Southern Plains west through the Rockies, Great Basin and almost the entire Far West during the time frame from April to the end of July, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This outlook suggests little to no rebuilding of moisture along with stress to people and livestock and declining water supplies in affected regions. The exhausting warm and dry December through March period appears to have been a warning of more dryness to come -- with new warm and dry record combinations in play.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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